Allen R. Carlson, USA TODAY, 13 November 2015
If China’s Xi Jinping can talk with Taiwan’s leader, he can talk to Tibet’s. This may be the last chance.
With this past weekend’s meeting with Taiwanese President Ma Ying Jeou, Chinese President Xi Jinping has accomplished something none of his predecessors at the helm of the People’s Republic of China has. Now, if Xi is the new type of leader of a more confident country as he styles himself to be, then he should turn his attention to another challenge: Tibet.
For years, Beijing has professed an interest in improving the situation in Tibet. Yet, it has steadfastly refused to directly engage Tibet’s political and spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, in discussions over the future of the region. Winner of the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize, the Dalai Lama fled Tibet in 1959 and has been living in exile in India. However, he remains deeply revered and wildly popular among Tibetans, and stands at the center of the Sino-Tibet relationship.
At most, China’s leaders have allowed for talk of talks with those associated with the Tibetan leader, but such prenegotiations have largely ground to a halt in recent years as China increasingly made it clear that it intends to simply wait things out in Tibet as the Dalai Lama ages.
A bolder move, one consistent with Xi’s decision to finally meet with his Taiwanese counterpart, would be to now reach out to the Tibetan leader. If Xi is truly intent on demonstrating to the world that his China is different, a new type of great power, then he should be able to sit down with an individual who describes himself as nothing more than a simple Tibetan monk.
Such a summit between Xi and the Dalai Lama would not produce any tangible results, but it would be of great symbolic significance and could introduce into the Sino-Tibetan relationship a prospect for real change and improvement, something that has been missing for decades.
It would also come at an especially important time, as this might be Xi’s last chance for a partner in the region. Once the Dalai Lama passes away, Beijing will find itself in a position where there is no one who has the status to make an agreement with China that most Tibetans would accept. In other words, if China simply waits until the Dalai Lama dies, it will find itself in an intractable place on the rooftop of the world.
At the same time, it is far from clear that the Tibetan leader would be amenable to such an overture. The Dalai Lama has frequently expressed an interest in returning to Tibet, and talking with Beijing is the necessary first step toward such a possible goal. However, he, the Tibetan diaspora population and those within Tibet might not be at all willing to accept the costs China’s leaders will likely demand for such a return. Furthermore, improving relations with the Dalai Lama could run the risk of emboldening Tibetan opponents to Chinese rule within the country.
Looking forward, the prospects for a breakthrough in Sino-Tibetan relations appear quite remote. Yet, only a few weeks ago, one could easily have said the same thing about relations across the Taiwan Strait. While the Xi-Ma handshake might not have changed the world, it did create the possibility of a new chapter opening between Taiwan and China. Xi, and China, should give serious consideration to doing the same in Tibet. Should the Chinese president take such a measure, the Dalai Lama might end up not being the only Nobel laureate at the table.
Allen R. Carlson is an expert on China politics and government and is an associate professor of government at Cornell University.
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